Don’t bet against the red wave, a top political handicapper predicts for 2022.
The Cook Political Report is projecting that Republicans have an advantage in taking back a majority in the House of Representatives during the coming midterm elections. The GOP need to flip just five seats to reclaim control of the lower chamber, with the party expressing optimism about their odds.
The ratings change released on Thursday shows Arizona’s 6th, New Jersey’s 7th and Texas’ 15th Congressional districts — all of which are held by Democrats — shifted into the “leans Republican” category. Meanwhile, Arizona’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 10th District fall into the “likely Republican” category.
And with recently redrawn congressional lines, two previously safe blue seats — Georgia’s 6th and North Carolina’s 7th Congressional Districts — have been moved to safe Republican holds.
Adding to the big blue woes, in the “toss up” category, Democrats currently have eight seats in contrast to Republicans’ six seats.
Cook Political analyst Dave Wasserman noted that things are still early and final maps have not been finalized which could potentially change the landscape.
“Still a long way to go, but Republicans clear favorites for control,” Cook tweeted.
“Three important caveats: – 19 states still aren’t included on this chart because they haven’t finalized lines – Some included states, like NC/OH, could still be struck down/altered by courts – this chart doesn’t show two “safe flips” from Dem to GOP: #GA06 & #NC07,” he added.
Historically, the party which holds control of the White House and both chambers has lost seats in the next election.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, has listed 70 districts that they see as potential pickups.