Why Detroit is the pick

Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his fourth season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.

Detroit Lions (+5.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

The Lions are the gift that keeps on giving, as they’re 9-5 ATS despite their 2-11-1 SU record as the oddsmakers and bettors continue to underestimate how competitive they’ve been all year. The 30-12 beatdown of the Cardinals was particularly impressive. The Falcons are still in the NFC wild-card hunt, but they’re really not as good as their 6-8 record. Detroit QB Jared Goff was added to the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday. We prefer he plays, but this is as much of a bet against the Falcons, so we’ll still pull the trigger if Tim Boyle gets the start.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Every time we want to write off the Steelers, they step up to get a big win and remain in the playoff hunt like they have two of the past three weeks against the Ravens and Titans. Though the Chiefs are playing better (especially on defense) in their seven-game winning streak to get back atop the AFC’s chase for the No. 1 seed, they still tend to let teams stick around, and I just can’t see them blowing out the Steelers. This line has been moving lower with more than a dozen Chiefs, including Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, on the reserve/COVID list, so it certainly helps our chances if the Chiefs are shorthanded. But we’d still like the Steelers to stay within a touchdown even if both teams are at full strength.

Last week: 2-0. Lions (W), Saints (W)
Season: 18-12