The Golden State Warriors have won three championships in recent years, and it’s starting to look like they might win another.
Up 3-0 in the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks, they far and away look like the superior team. No NBA team has ever come back to win in a best-of-seven series when trailing 0-3, meaning the Mavericks will have to make history if their season is to continue.
In a win-and-move-on Game 4 tonight, with Golden State eyeing another NBA Finals berth, there are a couple bets worth placing some money on.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Game 4 (9:00 p.m. ET, TNT)
Golden State Warriors alternate spread -3.5 (+220)
Yeah, I’m all-in on Golden State. Explain to me how a team which has won all three games in the series by an average scoring margin of 14.3 points is not even the favorite to win this game? Yeah, you can take the spread of +1.5 at (-115) on BetMGM, but if you, like me, believe that Golden State is going to continue its dominance in Game 4, then why not take the alternate spread?
+220 odds for a team to win by four points that has won every game in this series by at least nine feels good on the surface, and it feels great when you look at the details. Golden State is better than Dallas in essentially every single stat throughout this series.
The Warriors average 47.0 rebounds to Dallas’ 32.7 per game, they’re creating 28.3 assists per game to Dallas’ 18.0, are shooting better from the floor at 53.1% to Dallas’ 41.0%, are better from 3-point range at 39.3% to 32.6%, and have four players capable of putting up over 20 points (or much more) on any given night. Outside of Luka Doncic, Dallas simply can’t hang, and I expect the Warriors to put an exclamation point on their Western Conference Finals sweep tonight.
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Andrew Wiggins OVER 16.5 (-115)
Andrew Wiggins has been a revelation for the Warriors, and is one of those four aforementioned shooters capable of taking over a game. He’s coming off a playoff career-high 27 points, and has at least 16 points in his last four games.
When looking at points props, I like to look at player usage. Wiggins is averaging 17 field-goal attempts and six 3-point shots per game in this series, while playing at least 35 minutes (including all 40 in Game 3) per game. He’s on the court, he gets plenty of volume, and he takes – and makes – plenty of 3-pointers. He also put Doncic on a poster last game, and is riding a wave of momentum.
There is no reason not to expect more of the same from Wiggins. He’ll be a key contributor yet again, and has cleared this prop line in three of his last four games and five of his last seven. I’m riding with Wiggins for Game 4.