Everything seems to be coming up Dolphins for “Monday Night Football” and the line certainly reflects that, as the Dolphins are -2.5 or -3 across the market. The Saints will be without Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian, so Ian Book will make his first NFL start. New Orleans reportedly reached out to Philip Rivers and Drew Brees to give you an idea of how dire the situation actually is.
After a 1-7 start, the Dolphins have won six in row. They’ve beaten a lot of bad teams in that stretch, but are firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture. While this game should go in the win column, especially with the Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle tandem on fire, the Dolphins are still a team that has only averaged 4.8 yards per play on the season. They’ve scored at least 20 points in five straight, but the Saints still have a quality defense. Recent opponents, except for Carolina, have not.
Jumping on Miami to fade Book makes sense, but so does playing the under. The Dolphins are still 24th in points per drive, 26th in percentage of possessions ending with a score and are one of three teams averaging fewer than five yards per play. The Saints are fifth in points per drive allowed and seventh in percentage of possessions ending with points.
It’s a low total at 37.5, but maybe not low enough.
The play: Dolphins-Saints, Under 37.5.