A best practice when it comes to betting player props is to take a stand on how you think a given game will play out and then make correlated wagers off of that hypothesis. For instance, if you think that a given game is going to feature plenty of scoring, you’ll want to find bets that fit that pattern like a first-period over or an alternate spread.
The same rings true in the other direction. If you think a game will be low-event, there are a lot of prop bets on the board that will correlate to that game-script.
And while the first three games of the Stanley Cup Final between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over the total, there are some signals pointing to Game 4 being pretty rigid.
Here are a few prop bets that provide value in that type of game environment:
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Stanley Cup Finals Game 4: Avalanche vs. Lightning best prop bets
First Period Total Under 0.5 Goals (+370) Caesars Sportsbook
The Avalanche and Lightning have scored 10 first-period goals through three games in the Stanley Cup Final, so a bet on the teams to be tied, 0-0, at the intermission may seem a bit foolish, but it would not be surprising to see these two teams play a more cautious style of hockey right out of the gates.
For Colorado that may seem counter-intuitive, but the Avs have shown that they are comfortable with playing ugly this postseason, especially on the road. Additionally, it’s imperative for the Avs to get their struggling goaltender, Darcy Kuemper, back into form and playing their run-and-gun style does put more pressure on their netminder. Playing the game a bit closer to the vest should allow Kuemper to ease his way into the contest on Wednesday night.
We know that the Lightning prefer to keep games predictable and will try desperately to avoid giving up the first goal for the fourth game in a row, so a sluggish start to Game 4 doesn’t seem all that crazy.
Andrei Vasilevskiy to post a shutout (+1450) BetMGM
The Colorado Avalanche don’t get shutout. Wednesday night will be the 100th game the Avs have played this campaign (regular season and playoffs) and they’ve been shutout one time. That begs the question: Why would you bet on them to put up a goose egg?
Everything in betting comes down to price, and getting these kind of odds on the best goaltender in the world to pitch a shutout are always worth considering, no matter the opponent.
Additionally, piggy-backing off the point above, there does seem to be a decent chance that this is pretty rigid game with scoring chances at a premium. If that is how this contest plays out, then Vasilevskiy is live to do something heroic.
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Corey Perry Anytime Goalscorer (+310)/First Goalscorer (+2000) — BetMGM
We saw vintage Corey Perry in Game 3. Sure, the former NHL MVP got on the scoresheet, but more importantly, he was an absolute pain in the you-know-what for Kuemper and the Avalanche defense.
Perry’s role in this series should only grow as it goes on, as Brayden Point looks doubtful to play another game. That means that Perry will bump up to the third line with Nick Paul and Ross Colton, and will take Point’s spot on Tampa Bay’s first power play alongside Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Anthony Cirelli.